Projected Changes in the Seasonal Cycle of Madden‐Julian Oscillation Precipitation and Wind Amplitude

Although recent studies have examined the responses of annual- and seasonal-mean Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) activity to global warming, little is known about seasonal cycle changes that determine timing peak MJO influence on local weather climate. By analyzing Community Earth System Model version 2 large ensemble at end 21st century, we report in both phase amplitude precipitation over tropical Indian Ocean southwestern Pacific. While delay related total precipitation, with contributions from surface latent heat flux circulation changes, amplification consistent increase due mean temperature increases. The shifts under warming may predictability extreme events.